Briefly describe the steps that are used to develop a forecasting system. Identify the three forecasting time horizons and state an approximate duration for each. Provide a Criminal Justice example for each time horizon.
Forecasting is defined as the art and science of predicting future events (Heizer & Render, 2008). When implementing a forecasting system, there are seven basic steps, determine the use of the forecast, select the items to be forecasted, determine the time horizon of the forecast, select the forecasting model(s), gather the data needed to make the forecast, make the forecast, and validate and implement the results. (Heizer & Render, 2008)
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Heizer, J. & Render, B. (2008). Operations Management: Custom Edition for Bellevue University. (9th e.d.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson-Prentice Hall.
Explain the value of seasonal indices in forecasting. How are seasonal patterns different from cyclical patterns? Provide your thoughts on how forecasting can/should impact resource scheduling for a Criminal Justice organization.
In regards to forecasting, seasonal indices allow you to recognize changes as they increases or decreases in recurring events, such as weather or holidays (Heizer and Bender, 2008). Cyclical patterns differ from seasonal patterns in that they occur with less frequency; typically every several years (Heizer, 2008).
Forecasting is an important tool in the Criminal Justice Field and when used properly will be an asset to the agency. In the area I work, our department uses forecasting for man power for the spring break holiday which last for over a month. Based on the amount visitors the previous year, the department allocated more officers to the beach to help prevent any problems that have been documented the year before. This is also true for the summer months. We also use School Resource Officers to fill in the gaps on coverage on the beach during this time, this is more of a seasonal variation.
Heizer, J. and Bender, B. (2008) Operations Management: Custom Edition for Bellevue University (9th ed.) Upper Saddle River, NJ; Pearson Custom Publishing
List the four criteria for determining the effectiveness of a scheduling decision. How do these criteria relate to the four criteria for sequencing decision? What is meant by...