# Decision Of Uncertainty Paper

786 words - 4 pages

Decision of Uncertainty Paper

The use of statistical data in decision making can be very helpful. Being able to use the statistics and formulate probabilities to help in the decision making process. There are several different types of statistical processes such as using confidence intervals, calculation of probability (Bayes’ Theorem), and hypothesis testing.
Decision
I am going out of town for vacation for a month and the decision has to be made on whether to purchase a home security system or take the chance of not having any defense. The reason for this is because leaving a house empty for a month is a risk. However, purchasing a home security system is a rather ...view middle of the document...

Bayes’ Theorem
For the translation of the data and research that has been completed and collected the Bayes’ Theorem shall be used. Bayes’ Theorem is perfect for this decision because the evidence for this problem is very subjective. Bayes’ Theorem uses subjective probability where the opinions and information are interpreted as probabilities for calculation purposes. Thus, the confidence levels for the burglary of homes, burglary of homes with security systems, and burglary of homes without security systems will be predicted using Bayes’ Theorem.
Now that I have chosen the proper method to solve this problem I will input the numbers and calculate the confidence levels for all of the given subjective evidence. Not being burglarized will be notated by A1 and being burglarized will be notated by A2. I know that the probability of not being burglarized in general is 87%. So, the probability of being burglarized is 13%.   The notation and probability for not being burglarized with a home security system is P(B/A1) = .86. The notation and probability for being burglarized and having a home security system is P(B/A2) = .14. Using Bayes’ Theorem to find the confidence level that shows that I will not be burglarized if a home security system is...

## Other Essays Like Decision of Uncertainty Paper

### Decision of Uncertainty Essay

848 words - 4 pages Decision of Uncertainty Decision of Uncertainty University of Phoenix Decision I recently moved back to the United States (US) from Germany and I had to decide if I should continue to purchase full coverage auto insurance consisting of collision and comprehensive or only liability auto insurance. Due to a considerable decrease in pay returning back to the US, this could be a significant financial decision for my budget. Through my

### Financial Decision Making Under Uncertainty Essay

2929 words - 12 pages made without payment of charges other than the prevailing market rate of interest since no agent is large enough to affect prices or interest rates. Also, there is symmetric information among market participants. This means that the individual is open to either borrowing or spending money throughout his decision of joining into the gamble or not. However, we will first assume that this person starts out with zero wealth hence, we can solve for

### Management

569 words - 3 pages Significance and Limitations of Rational Decision-making Managers as Decision-makers The Rational Model Non-rational Models Decision-making Process Types of Managerial Decisions Programmed Decisions Non-programmed Decisions Decision-making Under Certainty, Uncertainty and Risk Management Information System vs Decision Support System The Systems Approach to Decision-making Group Decision-making Forms of Group Decision

### Is Luck on My Side? Optimism, Pessimism, and Ambiguity Aversion

2056 words - 9 pages uncertainty and ambiguity. Specifically, tolerance of ambiguity (TOA) has been shown to influence decision making across a number of business contexts including but not limited to capital. In business contexts set in environments of uncertainty and ambiguity, dispositional affect also has been shown to influence audit judgment, ethical decision making and investment decisions. Methods to avoid * Introduction From the research paper “IS LUCK ON

### Moments of Uncertainty

865 words - 4 pages the wrong path that got me a suspension from school, a loss of trust from my parents and also something that could affect my career in the coming years. This moment of uncertainty most definitely affected my decisions in the past few years for the better in my opinion and was the foundation for a new life with no silly and childish decisions. My other major moment of uncertainty was my decision on when to start drinking alcohol. It was just after

### The Reflection of Two Leadership Styles

666 words - 3 pages The Reflection of Two Leadership Styles NaKisha Dumas Walden University 02/09/2014 Abstract I will talk about followership and leadership connections with two persons that I work with. These people were chosen based on their leadership skills and abilities. Also, I have mutually admiration for both of them. Lastly, I preferred these two because they inspire me, and have pushed for me to go further in my career. In this paper I will talk

### Outsourcing

2433 words - 10 pages way decisions are made from the application of decision-making to outsource as discussed above, it is possible to unite the economic theory where there are three specific variables can be applied to the decision. These are frequency, uncertainty and asset specificity (Williamson, 1975, 1971). Transaction frequency is a simple variable to discuss when considering whether or not production should take place to enhance, or should be outsourced. In

### Recruitment

1000 words - 4 pages , compared to the number of job openings, and the difference seems to be rising every year with graduates and post-graduates entering the job market not by the hundreds, but by the thousands. This then calls for selection and recruitment measures that are truly beneficial for the organization, even though the best of techniques can prove an employer's hiring decision as being wrong (Sirbasku, 2002). 1st Case study of an Uncertainty Element An example

### Reading Defining Next-Generation Products an Insidelook

1219 words - 5 pages decision making about their products for delivery and time to market. Relatively little scientific knowledge is available on the application and usefulness of product road mapping in software product development context. This paper studied the critical aspects of the product road mapping process for software industry. Results showed insight into the complexities involved in product road mapping. Organizations view product roadmap -a tool for

### The Fit Between Technology and Structure as a Predictor of Performance in Nursing Sub-Units

2010 words - 9 pages focal point. This study is more about regularizing the analysis level to each organization and measurement of contingency relationship between technology and structure. Studies which considered large units led to more enigma than studies which considered smaller sub-units. The research paper concentrates on highlighting the link between technology and structure; and how they can be utilized to improve the performance of an organization. The

### Effects of Networking Management

1030 words - 5 pages information flows and Decision Rights in the implementation of a successful strategy. * How these 17 traits can be worked upon to ensure better execution Lecture 2 Strategy and organizational evolution Strategic planning is aimed at dealing with the enormous uncertainty and constant change that modem organizations find in the environments to which they must adapt. A market ‘niche’ is typically a transient thing Making choices and

## Related Papers

### Decision Of Uncertainty Essay

989 words - 4 pages greatly. Most of time uncertainty exists whenever people determine a decision on a daily basis. A decision to buy rental car insurance will be answered by using the concept of probability. This paper will focus on the application of various probabilities to formulate the decision under uncertainty. Discreet outcome from statistical analysis as well as trade-offs between accuracy and precision obtained by different probabilities concepts shall be

### Decision Of Uncertainty Essay

761 words - 4 pages Decision of Uncertainty QNT/561 January 18, 2010 Louis Daily Decision of Uncertainty Confidence intervals can be used to make estimations about population parameters since confidence intervals represent an assortment of possible values for the parameter. In statistical inference, one wishes to estimate population parameters using observed sample data. This paper will develop this probability concept to formulate a decision. It will

### Decision Of Uncertainty Essay 751 Words

751 words - 4 pages Running head: Decision of Uncertainty Decision of Uncertainty Georgianna (Estep) Rovito QNT HC561 Applies Business Research & Statistics in Health Care February 13, 2012 Maureen Steinwall Decision: To buy or not to buy new data system for electronic medical records Technology changes often and health care technology is not different. Smith Medical Center (SMC) is still

### Decision Of Uncertainty Essay 1089 Words

1089 words - 5 pages Decision of Uncertainty Douglas Doss QNT/561 March 5, 2012 Gerald Heidt Decision of Uncertainty E & J Gallo Winery ships wine and spirit products to their regional distribution centers (RDC) for distribution to their retail outlets. The shipment methods used are truck, rail, and intermodal. The number of in-transit damage claims continues to increase for the products shipping to the Georgia RDC via railcar using the Route A