Economic Development Of The United Arab Emirates, 1990 2040: Policies, Progress, Perspective

3410 words - 14 pages

Introduction
En 1971, plusieurs territoires parmi les plus pauvres du Golfe Arabo-Persique se fédérèrent en un nouvel état : les Emirats Arabes Unis (EAU). Cette zone, peu peuplée, au climat inhospitalier, ne vivotait depuis des siècles que de la pêche des perles et d’une portion du commerce maritime entre Orient et Occident. L’exploitation industrielle du pétrole et du gaz venait seulement d’y débuter. Pourtant, les EAU allaient suivre une trajectoire économique exceptionnelle. Si, au début des années 1990, la richesse pétrolière des Emirats expliquait à elle seule un PIB par habitant supérieur à tous les autres pays du Moyen-Orient, la volonté politique de renforcer et diversifier ...view middle of the document...

Partant du 40ème rang mondial, le PIB total a décuplé et franchira 400 milliards de dollars en 2014, pour atteindre le 28eme rang. Le PIB des EAU a dépassé celui de pays bien plus peuplés, comme l’Algérie, l’Egypte, et l’Iran.
En 1990, la richesse par habitant des Emirats, avec un PIB de 26 612 USD/an/habitant, distançait tout le reste du Moyen Orient. Le Qatar venait en seconde position (15 446 USD/an/h) loin derrière, et les autres pays à 10 000 USD/an ou moins. En 2014, le Qatar et le Koweït ont rejoint les EAU dans un trio à part (respectivement 96 635, 46 342 et 44 330 USD/an/h). Le quatrième plus riche pays, l’Arabie Saoudite, affiche seulement 25 228 USD/an/h.
Cependant, au contraire du Qatar et du Koweït, le développement de l’économie émirienne s’est construit sur la diversification. Alors que les EAU étaient en 1990 le pays du Golfe le plus dépendant du pétrole, dont les exportations représentaient 60% du PIB, ce ratio est descendu à 40% en 2012 . Dans le même temps, la part du pétrole et du gaz dans les économies Qatari et Koweïti explosait. En d’autres termes, les Emirats sont le seul pays riche en hydrocarbures qui soit parvenu simultanément à maintenir de hauts revenus tout en diminuant sa dépendance au pétrole.
Nous étendrons cette comparaison à d’autres indicateurs de développement, économiques et sociaux, et à un plus grand échantillon de pays. Nous chercherons particulièrement à identifier points communs et différences dans la trajectoire de développement d’autres pays qui sont ou furent favorisés par d’importantes ressources naturelles – par exemple le Nigeria, l’Afrique du Sud, et l’Algérie.
Ceci impliquera deux analyses initiales. L’une, démographique, pour caractériser les évolutions récentes et prévisibles des différents segments de population. L’autre, économique, du secteur de la production des hydrocarbures aux Emirats afin de préciser les moyens financiers et les risques attenant à cette ressource centrale pour le pays.

Une diversification tirée par l’énergie et le commerce international
Le dynamisme de cinq secteurs économiques met en évidence la transformation économique du pays.
Les deux premiers sont liés aux immenses ressources énergétiques du pays, détenues principalement par l’émirat d’Abu Dhabi (réserves prouvées de 98 milliards de barils, soit 9% du total mondial).
La pétrochimie d’abord, représentait une extension verticale évidente pour les principaux pays producteurs de pétrole. Tous ou presque, ont investi dans des capacités massives de raffinage et de production de plastiques et polymères. Par exemple, d’une portion négligeable en 1990, la part du GCC dans la production mondiale de Polyéthylène atteindra en 2015 19%, dont environ un tiers au Emirats .
Ensuite, plus récemment, l’énergie nucléaire apparait comme une diversification horizontale pour les mêmes producteurs d’hydrocarbure du GCC. Parmi eux, les EAU ont pris les devants, premier pays à matérialiser un programme nucléaire en...

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