Forcasting With Indicies Essay

597 words - 3 pages

Running Head: Forecasting with Indices

Forecasting with Indices

University of Phoenix Online

April 18, 2011

Ohidul Siddiqui

The data that I used to gather my information was from the University of Phoenix website “The Summer Historical Inventory Data”. As you can see the data that was provided covers twelve months over a four year period. What I did was I took the average of each year, which was adding the demand of each of the months and dividing that by twelve which in return gave me the average. (See below spreadsheet)

|Month |Year 1 |Year 2 |Year 3 |Year 4 |Average |
...view middle of the document...

50 |
|11 |$21,400.00 |$39,300.00 |$31,790.00 |$16,800.00 |$27,322.50 |
|12 |$17,100.00 |$10,300.00 |$31,100.00 |$18,900.00 |$19,350.00 |
|Total |$457,350.00 |$487,030.00 |$537,620.00 |$550,750.00 |$508,187.50 |

After getting the average of the four years I took the average of the 4 years and divided that by the average of each month which in return gave me the Index. (See chart below)

|Month |Average | Index |
|1 | $ 39,600.00 | 0.935088 |
|2 | $ 37,080.00 | 0.875582 |
|3 | $ 30,000.00 | 0.708400 |
|4 | $ 59,210.00 | 1.398145 |
|5 | $ 64,375.00 | 1.520108 |
|6 | $ 57,750.00 | 1.363670 |
|7 | $ 47,370.00 | 1.118564 |
|8 | $ 56,637.50 | 1.337400 |
|9 | $ 29,855.00 | 0.704976 |
|10 | $ 39,637.50 | 0.935973 |
|11 | $ 27,322.50 | 0.645175 |
|12 | $ 19,350.00 | 0.456918 |
| | | |

The last part is forecasting for the fifth year at Summer Historical. To get the

Forecast I took the index of each month and multiplied it by the formula of 2756.6*5 + 35458

(y = m*b+b).

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| |Forecast for | | ...

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