Forecasting Essay

639 words - 3 pages

Checkpoint Forecasting
Exercise 9.1
The following data represents the total personnel expense for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for the past four years.

The text is asking for the 20x5 figures using the either one of the four forecasting models, in this process, to find the 20x5 figures the process will include using the models of moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing. Moving averages and weighted moving averages, by adding and dividing only the data for the past three fiscal years:

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1, it was easy for me to use moving averages, weighted moving averages and exponential smoothing, because I understood how the formula and numbers came together when I used adding, multiplying, and dividing I was able to get the correct answers. For me Time Regression was a little hard for me to use, I did not understand how to input the numbers into the computer, and when I did the numbers was way off, even though I added it I still could not get the understanding of time regression. I know the time series regression is supposed to be one of the easy methods to use I was unable to grasp the understanding of this particular formula.

Exercise 9.3
The following data represents the total revenues (from all sources) for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for the past four fiscal years:

The text is asking for the 20x5 figures using the either one of the four forecasting models, in this process, to find the 20x5 figures the process will include using the models of moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing. Moving averages and weighted moving averages, by adding and dividing only the data for the past three fiscal years:

To forecast the total revenues for the year 20x5, I will use moving averages, weighted moving averages and exponential smoothing.

Moving Averages

Weighted Moving Averages
20x5 = $82,750,000,...

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