FORECASTING AND ENVIRONMENT FORECASTING
Forecasting is essentially the study of internal and external forces that shapes demand and supply. The shape of the things to come will depend partially upon how one shapes the controllable factors. With different strategies, the forecasting will be different, offering multiple scenarios for management decision making. Forecasting is an estimate of sales in physical units for a specified future period under proposed marketing plan or programme and under the assumed set of economic and other forces outside the organization for which the forecast is made. Long term forecasts: Product diversification, sales, advertizing budgets, capacity planning and ...view middle of the document...
Life Cycle Analysis: It is based on the premises that every category of product has a certain marketable Page 1 of 3
life period. The different stages in the life cycle of a product are Product Development Early Introduction Rapid Growth Steady State Decline and Death
Quantitative Method Time Series Analysis: Extrapolation, Simple Average Method, Moving Averages Method, Weighted Average Method, Exponential Smoothing Method, Trend Correction, Correction for Seasonality. Casual or econometric Model of Forecasting: Factors influencing the demand which includes demographic, economical, geographic, competition, etc. to arrive at the demand forecast. Multiple Regression Analysis: It considers the effect of the change in the dependent variable by manipulating or changing the value of the independent variable and thus computing the forecast.
Unsustainable use of Natural Resources: Heightened manufacturing and service activities make less and less of the vital resources like fresh water, clean air or forests or fertile land being available today, but is also leading to many disasters like floods, droughts and cyclone among others. Excessive use of Energy: Leading to increased building of hydel dams, thermal and nuclear plants, which can cause environmental problems like global warming, depletion of forests and biodiversity, pollution of water bodies and land masses, radiation damage and the displacement of people in large scale. Waste Generation: The processes have been producing wastes – gaseous, liquid and solid – that are discharged into the environment, causing damages to people, animals and vegetation. Burning of fossil fuels can cause much air pollution. Global Warming: Increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and methane (Green house gases – GHG) in the atmosphere, which absorbs the heat of the solar radiation radiated from the warm surface of the earth. Ozone Hole: Increased concentration of chlorofluoracarbons (CFC) used in various aerosol products, has depleted the protective ozone layer in the stratosphere and formed an OZONE HOLE allowing increased amount of sun's UV radiation to reach the earth, increasing the incidence of skin cancer and other problems. Nuclear waste and Radioactivity: Disposal of spent rods in the nuclear reactor, old and obsolete nuclear reactor, could remain radioactive for thousands of years and to be safely disposed....