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Highline Financial Service Ltd Essay

1075 words - 5 pages

| Highline Financial Services Ltd, |
Memo
To:
From:
CC:
Date: [ 11/15/2012 ]
Re: Forecasting upcoming year
Highline Financial Service offers three types of service to its client. Managing partner, Freddie Mack would like to arrange the financial and staffing for the upcoming year. The data he has shows that there is fluctuation with regards to each service the company offers.
Mr. Mack would like to estimate future demand for services, keeping in mind that advertising, promotion and competition will remain constant at current rate. The data covers the company’s last eight quarters and does not include any information with regards to seasonal trend.
The fluctuation of demand in ...view middle of the document...

Service B displays a decrease pattern with respect to its current pattern. Service C appears to have the most fluctuation with regards to its current pattern.

Recommendation:
I will make use of this data to provide a quantitative forecast the upcoming year. Analyze each service by utilizing the time series forecasting techniques.
Naive Forecast:
Year | | Service | A | | | | |
| QTR 1 | QTR 2 | QTR 3 | QTR 4 | | | |
1 | 60 | 45 | 100 | 75 | | | |
2 | 72 | 51 | 112 | 85 | | | |
Change | 12 | 6 | 12 | 10 | | | |
Forecast | 84 | 57 | 124 | 95 | | | |
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Year | | Service | B | | | | |
| QTR 1 | QTR 2 | QTR 3 | QTR 4 | | | |
1 | 95 | 85 | 92 | 65 | | | |
2 | 85 | 75 | 85 | 50 | | | |
Forecast | 75 | 65 | 78 | 35 | | | |
| QTR1 | QTR 2 | QTR 3 | QTR 4 | | | |
Change | -10 | -10 | -7 | -15 | | | |
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Year | | Service | C | | |
| QTR 1 | QTR 2 | QTR 3 | QTR 4 | |
1 | 93 | 90 | 110 | 90 | |
2 | 102 | 75 | 110 | 100 | |
Forecast | 111 | 60 | 110 | 110 | |
Change | 9 | -15 | 0 | 10 | |
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Analysis:
Based on data above Service A appears to be increasing annual and should increase over the next four quarters. Service B appears to be decreasing annually and displays signs that it will continue to follow a decreasing pattern over the next four quarters. Service C has an inconsistent quarterly pattern; it appears that the pattern of inconsistency will be followed over the next four quarters.
Recommendation:
Continue to utilize other time series techniques to provide a good forecast
MOVING AVERAGE:
| SERVICE A | | | |
Period | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
1 | 60 | 72 | 66 | |
2 | 45 | 51 | 48 | |
3 | 100 | 112 | 106 | |
4 | 75 | 85 | 80 | |
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