Nova Southeastern University
H. Wayne Huizenga School
of Business & Entrepreneurship
Assignment for Course: | QNT5040 |
Submitted to: | Dr. P. Rokicki |
Submitted by: |
Date of Submission: 11 March 2013
Title of Assignment: Case Study of Northern Napa Valley Winery
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Frog’s Leap now makes its home in the heart of Rutherford in the historic Red Barn. Frog’s leap is known for its iconic Red Barn, relaxed atmosphere, and environmentally friendly operations.
In September of 2008 Quintana was considering an offer from TransContinental Stores to purchase her the excess grapes from Northern’s 2008 harvest. Prior to making a decision Quintana would have to examine the quantity her company had available to sell after using what she needed.
Quintana wishes to forecast her sales as accurately as possible so as to know what amount of excess grapes she will have available to sell to Transcontinental for 2008.
As a first step it is necessary to understand the data in Exhibit 1 and there are a few ways of getting an idea of the data visually. The first is by examining the Monthly Wine Sales for Northern visually and then plugging in the data into a StatTools One Variable Summary.
Table 1 - Exhibit 1: Northern Napa Valley Winery – Monthly Wine Sales 2000-2008
In the data given above we see that the months of September 2008 to December 2008 is blank. This is the area of time that Quintano desires accurate forecasting. Next it is necessary to examine the One Variable Summary below.
Table 2 - One Variable Summary
StatTools Report |
Analysis: | One Variable Summary |
Performed By: | diegoandres |
Date: | Friday, March 01, 2013 |
Updating: | Live |
| Total Sales |
One Variable Summary | Forecasting |
Mean | 11498.47 |
Variance | 12991521.53 |
Std. Dev. | 3604.38 |
Skewness | 1.0691 |
Kurtosis | 4.4020 |
Median | 10933.00 |
Mean Abs. Dev. | 2709.49 |
Mode | 10723.00 |
Minimum | 6385.00 |
Maximum | 23609.00 |
Range | 17224.00 |
Count | 104 |
Sum | 1195841.00 |
1st Quartile | 8820.00 |
3rd Quartile | 13349.00 |
Interquartile Range | 4529.00 |
1.00% | 6520.00 |
2.50% | 6534.00 |
5.00% | 6692.00 |
10.00% | 7133.00 |
20.00% | 8395.00 |
80.00% | 14028.00 |
90.00% | 15337.00 |
95.00% | 18821.00 |
97.50% | 21951.00 |
99.00% | 22207.00 |
The One Variable Summary provides a broad analysis with relevant information such as the mean, standard deviation, median, mode, minimum, maximum, range and the sum of revenue for the time given in Exhibit 1.
To get a visual understanding of this same data it is necessary to use a QQ Plot as the one below which demonstrates a normal looking data set.
Graph 1 - QQ Plot
Graph 2 - Box and Whisker Plot
The Box and Whisker plot above illustrates the growth in revenue and the outliers in the data in a visual manner. We can see by this plot that there is a general trend of growth with increasing outliers and range. While erratic numbers may be an indication of more than just noise, but also of randomness, there are 4 methods that can be used to test to see if the data is random. However from the visual data above it does not seem likely that the data is random.
We do that...