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The Black Swan Essay

770 words - 4 pages

The book The Black Swan: The Impact of the HIGHLY IMPROBABLE, written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb; introduces the idea(s) of the black swan theory. The term black swan theory is a metaphor used to describe an event that comes as a surprise and has a major effect. Assumptions were all swans were white, however they are not as there was a rare discovery of black swans in Western Australia in 1697, by a Dutch explorer. Taleb, the author of this book is also the founder of the Black Swan Theory as he uses his background in philosophy and mathematics to describe randomness and uncertainty in society and everyday life.
According to the Black Swan Theory, unpredictable events are much more common ...view middle of the document...

Taleb labels this type of individual as, “great at self-delusion”. I would have to agree with Taleb’s label for individuals being delusional or in a state of psychosis, as our individual psyche becomes affected by such unpredictable events or rare occurrences. For example, people like to blame the President for their current issues and problems in life because it sounds good to them. With that said, we do not know what we think we know and never will when it comes to why an event took place in history or in the past in our lives, therefore making us expect the expected in a sense because the future cannot be predicted. Taleb also indicated in his book “history doesn’t crawl—it jumps between major, unexpected events”. (pg. 11)
Taleb begins to elaborated on the “Known known’s (things we know), Known unknown’s (things we do not know), and Unknown unknown’s (the things we do not know we do not know).” The Unknown unknown is an uncertainty that is unknown and is unanticipated, therefore unaccounted for in a proper decision, which is an indication of risk-taking. In his book, Taleb classified two types of reality, mediocristan...

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