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The Concept Of Probability Essay

693 words - 3 pages

Unit 2: The Concept of Probability
Tammie Shaw
BUSN311-1204B-08: Quantitative Methods and Analysis
10/14/2012
Irene Tsapara

Abstract
This paper will provide you with information on how my probability of getting an “A” in this class is very scarce. You will find out how my other classmates would succeed in this class, and how I would use subjective probability later on in life. There will also be examples of businesses that will use subjective probability within their company.
Unit 2: The Concept of Probability
I think that my chances of getting an “A” in this class are very impossible. There is no way possible for my outcome to be the same as the others, because my grades are already failing grades. The math process will be provided so that a determination of what grade I might receive. The determination of this problem is an example of subjective probability because it is an educated guess. I think that it would probably be a 10 percent chance of me getting an A in ...view middle of the document...

Now, with all of this being said there is no way that all of us will be able to have the same outcome.
An estimated guess is called a subjective probability when it depends on how much knowledge one has on any giving issue. An educated guess is used when a person have very little information to go on when have to make a determination in a forceful situation. Marketing research is considered to be a subjective probability in the business world. It is marketing management duty to make critical and non critical decisions that uses a strategy that involves the subjective probability. When the outcome is used as inputs, the marketing researchers should use techniques that involve subjective probability when doing cost benefit analysis, decision tree analysis, and intelligence analysis. Mahajan, J. (August 1992).
My personal and business professions will lead guide me in the use of subjective probability in my future to come. The company that I work for, allow me to make decisions when scanning invoices from a variety of vendors. It is up to me to make a subjective probability to judge whether the invoice should be paid or not paid, based on the information that is provided by the vendor. After, the vendor resubmits the invoice to you will have to use the empirical probability based on the experiment data that the invoice was compared against. Murray, L. (Instructor). (8/2012).
Everyone will use probability throughout their life time of making decisions. This day and time probability plays a very important part in your life. It could be an advantage to you, just as well as a disadvantage to you. Probability becomes involved even when there is a very important decision to be made right away. From my point of view, I think that the world always have been based on probabilities and very little facts.

References
Editorial Board (2011). Elementary Statistics (1st ED.). New York, NY: Words of Wisdom, LLC.
Mahajan, J. (August 1992). High Beam Business: The overconfidence effect in marketing management predictions... Retrieved from http://business.highbeam.com
Murray, L. (Instructor). (8/2012). Chat Session Unit 2 [Audio podcast]. Elementary Statistic. Retrieved from http://www.mycampus.aiu-online.com

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